The freight market in the Black Sea continues to be under pressure due to a significant surplus of available vessels. Despite gradual growth in demand for Ukrainian grain, rates remain low. Shipowners are forced to compete for limited cargo consignments, which hinders market recovery. Regular fertilizer deliveries contribute to partial optimization of routes, but this is not enough to balance the situation. It is expected that even with grain export growth, excess tonnage will continue to restrain the recovery of rates, leaving the market in a zone of increased risks.
In the Mediterranean Sea, the freight market is facing even more difficulties. Lack of large cargo consignments combined with a record number of vacant vessels increases pressure on rates. Charterers are taking advantage of the situation by seeking rate cuts in the fertilizer, steel and building materials segments. Shipowners are finding it difficult to maintain current freight levels, especially against the backdrop of low activity in key ports. The trend continues: supply/demand imbalance is limiting opportunities for rate growth, while market conditions remain on the side of charterers.
The situation in the Sea of Azov remains the most difficult. Chronic stagnation of cargo flows and oversupply of vessels force owners to agree to minimum rates that do not cover operating costs. Even grain and coal transportation does not bring the expected profitability. Weather delays and internal logistical problems create additional difficulties, which reduce the region’s investment attractiveness. The outlook remains negative: the lack of demand growth factors and persistent excess tonnage do not allow the market to overcome the crisis in the coming months.