+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, the freight market remains in a state of tough confrontation between shippers and shipowners, which keeps the gap in the parties’ rate expectations very wide. The key pressure factor is the high volatility of bunker prices, which shipowners continue to rely on in negotiations in an attempt to keep the market from falling. At the same time, real support from the cargo base looks limited, as the number of firm spot offers is declining and business activity remains subdued. An additional factor is the gradual accumulation of open tonnage for prompt dates, which weakens shipowners’ positions and limits the scope for further rate increases. Interest in grain, fertilisers, steel and other bulk cargoes persists on certain routes, but this is not enough to change the overall market balance in favour of shipowners. As a result, the market looks sluggish and fixing activity remains minimal, as shippers are not ready to quickly accept shipowners’ ideas. In the near term, mild downward pressure on Black Sea freight is more likely to persist unless the volume of firm cargo offers begins to recover.
In the Mediterranean Sea, freight levels are currently influenced mainly by moderate cargo flows and the absence of a pronounced shortage of open vessels, which creates a relatively calm but unstable backdrop for the market. Shipowners’ main argument remains the rise and instability of bunker prices, which is why they seek to hold rates and do not reveal the market too transparently. Shippers, by contrast, maintain a restrained approach, as they are not ready to fully accept increases, especially when there is a choice of open tonnage. A significant supporting factor is a certain revival in steel product shipments, which has allowed the market to firm locally and supported shipowners’ sentiment. However, the overall cargo flow in the region still cannot be described as consistently strong, so the market has not received a full impulse for confident growth. The persistently wide gap in rate expectations continues to limit the number of deals and prevents the market from moving into a phase of active firming. For the coming period, the most likely scenario for the Mediterranean is cautious dynamics with a risk of weaker activity if shippers continue to postpone new deals while waiting for more certainty on costs.
In the Sea of Azov, freight is simultaneously influenced by grain export activity, bunker costs, conditions for passage through the Kerch Strait and the overall balance of tonnage and cargo base. On the one hand, shippers remain interested in wheat exports and are also becoming more active in by-products, including meal and bran, which supports business activity in the region. On the other hand, improved weather and shorter waiting times in the strait have accelerated fleet turnover, so tonnage supply has started to grow and the market has begun to show the first signs of softening. An additional influence is that shippers are already calculating future shipments from river ports, which reinforces expectations of an expanding fleet supply in the near term. At the same time, high bunker prices still prevent rates from falling too sharply and remain an important argument for shipowners in negotiations. A wait-and-see stance on certain cargoes is also noticeable within the market, which limits the potential for a quick recovery and makes the dynamics more cautious. In the short term, further moderate pressure on Azov freight is likely, especially if available tonnage continues to grow faster than demand from shippers recovers.