+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, freight in the small-tonnage segment is shaped by limited trading activity and growing pressure from shippers, who are increasingly dictating terms. The supply of available vessels is gradually expanding, so shipowners are forced to look for employment more actively and enter negotiations more often to avoid idle time. The cargo base remains narrow and irregular, so deals are closed on a spot basis and mainly for the most straightforward lots. An additional constraint is the seasonal slowdown due to a religious holiday, which reduces the number of fresh orders and intensifies competition between vessels. Shipowners are still holding terms by inertia, but with a weak inflow of cargo the market balance is gradually shifting in favour of shippers. Documentary readiness and schedule accuracy are becoming more important in negotiations, since any delay immediately returns the market to a scenario of concessions. Forecast: if the current shortage of cargo offers persists, terms will gradually weaken as the weather improves and fleet turnover accelerates.
In the Mediterranean Sea, freight is being supported by shipowners’ desire to hold their positions, although trading activity has looked subdued in recent days. The seasonal factor of the religious holiday is reducing the intensity of orders, so shippers are more often taking a wait-and-see stance and trying to bring terms back to more comfortable levels. Shipowners are reluctant to make concessions and seek to protect voyage economics through requirements for cargo readiness and minimising waiting risks. At the same time, the market remains sensitive to any port delays, as even short disruptions worsen vessel turnover and immediately change the negotiating power of the parties. As a result, terms are stabilising, but tension in negotiations is growing, as shippers see an opportunity to increase pressure in the absence of a dense cargo flow. The fewer confirmed lots there are in the short term, the more likely shipowners are to accept more flexible terms for the sake of employment. Forecast: moderately weak activity is expected to continue, with a risk of a gradual softening of terms if the cargo inflow does not accelerate.
In the Sea of Azov, freight in the sea-river segment is still driven by a shortage of available vessels for prompt dates due to congestion and extremely long delays that disrupt fleet turnover. Even with moderate activity, shippers have to compete for scarce open positions, so shipowners retain a strong negotiating position and are in no hurry to make concessions. At the same time, the market is showing the first signs of softening expectations for later dates, as some participants are reducing activity and planning shipments more cautiously. Export restrictions and weak grain demand are increasing uncertainty for shippers and reducing the number of firm orders, so deals are more often postponed until a clearer execution window appears. However, even with lower trading activity, terms are not falling quickly, because idle time and delays continue to sustain a real tonnage shortage. Schedule control and cargo readiness are becoming decisive factors, as any deviation increases the risk of losing the vessel or incurring significant idle time. Forecast: as ice conditions improve and fleet turnover accelerates, a noticeable softening of terms is likely, especially if the cargo flow remains weak.