+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, freight in the small-tonnage segment is driven primarily by the sharp rise and high volatility of the bunker component, which is leading shipowners to seek compensation that significantly exceeds the actual increase in voyage costs. Against this background, an extremely wide gap in expectations has formed between shippers and shipowners, so fixing activity remains minimal and some orders are being postponed or put on hold. In most cases, grain shippers avoid confirming deals on the terms offered by shipowners and prefer to pause if the cargo is not time-critical. At the same time, there are fewer firm cargoes, which weakens demand for tonnage and increases the risk of a vessel surplus as the list of open positions grows. Shipowners continue to voice aggressive ideas, relying on the panic sentiment of part of the market, but there are fewer real deals than announced expectations. As a result, the market looks overheated in terms of expectations and weak in terms of actual demand, which is gradually increasing competition among shipowners for the few confirmed lots. Forecast: as panic subsides and open tonnage accumulates, the market will lean towards softer terms unless there is a noticeable inflow of demand from major shippers.
In the Mediterranean Sea, current freight dynamics are also tied to bunker uncertainty, which makes the market nervous and slows down deal negotiations. The number of new enquiries from shippers looks moderate, while the list of available vessels is generally sufficient, so fundamentally the market does not support a sharp increase in terms. Shipowners, however, seek to raise voyage levels to pass on higher costs and use volatility as an argument for a firm stance. Shippers are in no hurry to accept such terms and more often resist, as they are not ready to quickly restructure supply economics and prefer to wait for a clearer situation. As a result, some shipments are being postponed, and negotiations are becoming longer, with frequent renegotiations and a return to the spot market. The market structure itself reinforces the waiting effect: with sufficient tonnage, the lack of urgency among shippers quickly reduces the likelihood of closing a deal on shipowners’ ideas. Forecast: the wait-and-see model is expected to continue, with a risk of a downward correction in terms if bunker uncertainty persists and the cargo base does not accelerate.
In the Sea of Azov, freight in the sea-river segment is supported not by demand but by a shortage of available vessels due to significant delays at the passage, which worsens fleet turnover and squeezes the real supply of tonnage. Against this background, shipowners are taking a bullish stance and pushing for higher terms, citing both bunker costs and voyage time lost to waiting. Shippers are reacting selectively: some orders are being postponed or cancelled because supply economics cannot withstand the stated expectations, especially in the absence of urgency. At the same time, even moderate grain activity can create a sense of tonnage shortage, as available positions are quickly taken up and new vessels do not return to the market due to weak turnover. An additional factor is that some shipowners are switching to other cargo types, where they see more stable returns and a lower risk of getting stuck waiting, which further reduces fleet availability for grain shippers. As a result, shipowners’ negotiating power is maintained, and the market remains volatile and sensitive to any change in turnover. Forecast: terms will remain elevated until delays are reduced and normal turnover of the sea-river fleet is restored.