In the Black Sea, the freight market remains under pressure due to the continued decline in the number of firm cargo offers, which directly constrains fixing activity. The main problem for shipowners remains the weak export base, as new sales are limited and shippers remain cautious about concluding deals. At the same time, the gap in rate expectations between shippers and shipowners is still significant, so negotiations drag on and often require concessions from shipowners. An additional factor is the general deterioration in business activity for a number of major cargoes, which prevents the market from receiving full support even when individual enquiries appear. Bunker costs also continue to affect voyage economics, although their easing no longer helps shipowners hold the market as confidently as before. As a result, Black Sea freight is being held not so much by strong demand as by shipowners’ reluctance to agree quickly to deeper concessions. In the short term, the Black Sea market is most likely to remain weak, with a risk of further gradual pressure on rates unless the flow of new cargo offers begins to recover.
In the Mediterranean Sea, the situation looks unfavourable for shipowners, as the number of new cargo offers remains limited and there is enough available tonnage for the current volume of shipments. Against this background, shippers are taking a tougher stance and increasingly pushing for lower rates, taking advantage of the absence of a vessel shortage. Additional pressure on the market comes from falling bunker prices, as this weakens one of shipowners’ main arguments in negotiations. At the same time, cargo activity itself remains only moderate and does not create preconditions for an upward market reversal. Even individual deals for minerals, steel and other cargoes do not change the overall picture, as the market as a whole remains saturated with tonnage supply. As a result, rates in the region are already being fixed below last week’s levels, and market sentiment is becoming increasingly restrained. In the near term, a mild downward trend is most likely to persist in the Mediterranean, especially if shippers continue to use the current market balance to their advantage.
In the Sea of Azov, the key pressure factor on freight remains limited export activity, which makes shippers reluctant to accept shipowners’ ideas for higher rates. At the same time, the market is seeing an increase in the number of available river-sea vessels, which intensifies competition among shipowners and gives shippers a stronger negotiating position. The reduction in delays is also having a significant impact, as faster fleet turnover leads to a greater supply of tonnage and further weakens the market. However, shipowners themselves are not yet ready to accept further rapid declines for prompt positions, so the spot market looks more resilient than shippers expect. An additional factor is weak activity from Turkish buyers, which limits support for the grain segment during a seasonally important period. A wait-and-see stance also persists for other cargoes, so there is no noticeable driver for firmer rates yet. In the short term, cautious downward pressure on Azov freight is likely to persist, especially for later dates, unless export activity begins to pick up.