In the Black Sea, the freight market remains in a sluggish phase, as no noticeable recovery in activity has occurred after the end of the holiday period. The key pressure factor remains the shortage of firm cargo offers, which prevents shippers from generating a sufficient flow of new deals and forces shipowners to operate under limited demand. At the same time, the list of available tonnage is gradually growing, which intensifies competition between vessels and prevents the market from moving towards sustained firming. However, shipowners are still successfully resisting a deeper decline in rates, relying on increased shipments of higher-value cargoes, primarily steel products and certain types of fertilisers. Bunker price volatility also plays a role, remaining shipowners’ main argument in negotiations despite the easing of the fuel market. As a result, the market looks weak in terms of activity but still relatively stable in terms of freight levels themselves. In the short term, pressure on Black Sea rates is most likely to increase gradually unless the flow of firm cargo offers begins to recover more confidently.
In the Mediterranean Sea, freight conditions look weak, as cargo flows from the region’s ports remain slow and the number of new offers for major cargoes is limited. The weakening is especially noticeable in the fertiliser segment, where high commodity prices and expensive logistics have reduced interest in shipments, further restraining shipper activity. At the same time, the list of available tonnage continues to grow gradually, giving shippers more room to push rates down in negotiations with shipowners. Falling bunker prices are also working against shipowners, as they weaken their main argument for maintaining higher freight levels. Despite regular enquiries for steel and individual lots of minerals and salt, the overall market remains sluggish and lacks sufficient impetus for an upward reversal. As a result, shipowners are increasingly forced to make concessions, and deals are being concluded on softer terms. In the near term, the Mediterranean market is most likely to remain weak, with further gradual pressure on freight unless cargo activity picks up.
In the Sea of Azov, pressure on the freight market has intensified due to a simultaneous increase in available tonnage and a lack of wheat offers, wheat being one of the region’s key cargoes. Against this background, shippers are taking an increasingly tough stance and pushing more actively for lower rates, taking advantage of the continued expansion of the list of river-sea vessels. A significant factor remains the reduction in delays, which earlier accelerated fleet turnover and led to an accumulation of free tonnage for prompt dates. At the same time, weak interest from Turkish buyers in grain purchases further limits market support and hinders the formation of a more stable cargo flow. Shipments from river ports have not yet entered an active phase, as most shippers are focused on calculating future programmes rather than on concluding deals immediately. Even the reduction in export duties for some crops has not yet been able to quickly reverse market sentiment and restore more active demand for shipping. In the short term, a further moderate weakening of Azov freight is most likely, especially if tonnage supply continues to grow faster than grain exports recover.