+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, freight continues to be driven by high bunker fuel volatility, which has made negotiations extremely contentious and slow. The gap between shippers’ and shipowners’ ideas remains wide, so a significant share of orders is being postponed and fixing activity remains at a minimum. Shipowners are making concessions mainly on spot only, while trying not to lower expectations for prompt dates in order to compensate for rising costs. No significant tonnage surplus is forming, however, and part of the fleet is moving to more expensive, better-paid cargoes, which further narrows the choice for grain shippers. As a result, grain deals are harder to close than those for metals and fertilisers, and the market looks thin in terms of liquidity. Executability is becoming the key criterion: readiness of cargo and documents, and minimising the risk of idle time. Forecast: the tense model is expected to continue, with spot deals prevailing and a likelihood of a mild correction in shipowners’ expectations if shippers continue to postpone shipments en masse.
In the Mediterranean Sea, freight in the current period is following a pattern of seasonal slowdown, with some shippers postponing decisions and shipowners seeking to secure fleet employment in advance. The holiday factor is reducing activity and increasing competition for the limited list of firm cargoes, so shipowners are becoming more flexible in negotiations. At the same time, bunker uncertainty persists and continues to add nervousness to voyage discussions, leading the parties to return to renegotiating terms more often. Fundamentally, the market is softer: demand looks less dense, and tonnage availability is sufficient to cover current enquiries without a shortage. As a result, freight is holding mainly by inertia, and attempts to firm up quickly run into shippers’ unwillingness to accept higher costs. The speed of lot confirmation and readiness to work on a spot basis are coming to the fore; otherwise the shipper risks losing the window. Forecast: moderately soft dynamics are expected to continue, with shipowners more willing to negotiate until a regular flow of orders resumes after the holiday period.
In the Sea of Azov, freight in the sea-river segment continues to be supported by weak fleet turnover, as transit delays and accumulated idle time remain significant even as weather conditions improve. Shipowners rely on the shortage of truly available vessels and rising fuel costs, so they are holding a firm stance and seeking to maintain elevated expectations. Shippers, on the contrary, are trying to halt further firming and in some cases are achieving signs of a pullback, using calmer demand and the ability to wait. At the same time, the market remains nervous: any new delay quickly brings back the sense of a tonnage shortage and weakens shippers’ negotiating position. Longer hauls are generally perceived as riskier due to the likelihood of additional idle time, so decisions are made more cautiously and closer to the actual window. As a result, deals are closed selectively and mainly where the shipper can ensure fast loading and document discipline. Forecast: a gradual softening of terms is only possible with a sustained reduction in delays and recovery of fleet turnover; otherwise the market will remain highly nervous, with shipowners resisting concessions.