+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea this week, offers for handysize vessels clearly dominate deals and discussions, which looks like a logical consequence of softer freight and shippers’ desire to close lots with lower operational risks. Coaster fixtures are present, but their share is lower, as shippers more often choose more versatile tonnage and schemes that can be agreed faster. At the same time, the market cannot be described as having been pushed down: the key reason for the current dynamics is not aggressive bargaining, but the fact that vessels are held up by bad weather and actual fleet turnover is deteriorating. A shortage of available tonnage is forming even with a moderate cargo flow, because a significant part of the fleet is employed on return voyages and does not appear on the list of real open positions. Against this background, shipowners are trying to raise their expectations slightly, relying on the lack of suitable vessels for prompt dates. For shippers, the decisive factor is not the rate as such, but the ability to actually present a vessel and complete the port stage without a chain of delays. Forecast: if bad weather persists and the fleet remains busy on return voyages, the market will stay close to stable, with local attempts to firm up terms.
In the Mediterranean Sea, the market picture remains dependent on the weather and actual fleet turnover, so even when vessels are available on paper, a shortage of real tonnage may arise at any given moment. Bad weather continues to hamper navigation and vessel handling in ports, so voyage execution times are becoming less predictable and shipowners are assessing waiting risks more strictly. With freight becoming cheaper, shippers are more actively considering handysize vessels as their main working tool, since it is easier to build a stable execution chain with them. At the same time, pressure from shippers cannot be considered the main factor: the market is driven by operational delays and vessels dropping out of circulation. Seeing turnover slow down, shipowners seek to protect terms and cautiously raise expectations where there are confirmed cargoes and clear windows. Shippers, in turn, have to build in time buffers and tighten document discipline so as not to lose the vessel at the last moment. Forecast: while bad weather persists, the market will remain in a mode of selective firming for urgent lots, and a more stable balance will only emerge once navigation conditions improve.
In the Sea of Azov, the fleet shortage is primarily caused by vessels being held up by bad weather, so even a limited cargo flow faces a lack of available positions. Under such conditions, shippers are not so much pressuring shipowners as trying to find a workable solution, since the main constraint is time and passability rather than the level of bargaining. The predominance of handysize vessels in discussions reflects the market’s search for more flexible tonnage for current windows and elevated operational risks. At the same time, part of the fleet remains employed on return voyages, which further narrows real supply and strengthens shipowners’ negotiating position. Against this background, shipowners seek to improve terms slightly to compensate for the risk of idle time and longer voyages, while shippers have to confirm cargo and documents faster so as not to miss the vessel. The market remains nervous and sensitive to any deterioration in the weather, as this immediately turns into a cascade of delays and an even greater shortage. Forecast: if bad weather and high fleet employment on return voyages persist, terms will hold firm with occasional increases, and a noticeable softening is only possible once vessel turnover recovers.