News of the freight market as of 26.01.2026

In the Black Sea, freight is formed against the backdrop of limited business activity, which is typical for the second half of January, so the market looks heterogeneous and deals are closed on a case-by-case basis. Grain shippers remain a key source of requests, but the overall trading pace is limited, which means that shipowners are not always able to confidently push for better terms. The willingness of shipowners to make calls has a significant impact, as some fleets avoid certain calls due to military risks and increased downtime, which narrows the options for shippers and makes it more difficult to secure deals. The weather factor increases the uncertainty of the timing, and any delays quickly worsen the ship’s turnover, so shipowners are more cautious about the risks of waiting and place higher demands on the readiness of cargo and documents. However, there is no noticeable reversal in the steel and other bulk cargo markets, so the market’s expectations are still largely based on the grain flow. In such circumstances, the dynamics of freight rates remain volatile: when the overall cargo flow is weak, rates may decrease, but when there is a shortage of suitable tonnage in certain areas, there is a rapid increase in pressure. The forecast is for a “ragged” market with local spikes and limited tonnage, and a steady recovery is only possible with an increase in cargo supply and a decrease in idling. Basis for the summary

In the Mediterranean, freight is determined by a protracted confrontation: the cargo supply remains limited, and the list of available vessels is long enough, so shippers feel the advantage in negotiations. Shipowners try to keep the level of transactions by stricter conditions to the cargo readiness and minimize the risks of waiting, but in practice it is difficult for them to completely stop the downward pressure. The market is supported by sporadic spikes in demand for fertilizers and grains, but these spikes do not create a steady flow that could drive the market upward. Additionally, seasonal caution affects market sentiment, as shippers tend to secure cargo closer to the loading windows, and shipowners prefer to take on only the most clear-cut and quickly executable shipments. As a result, deals are often made on a compromise basis, where the focus is not on the actual rate but rather on managing the timing and avoiding downtime. Activity is unevenly distributed within the sea, so shipowners use local “demand windows” to protect their levels, but competition between ships remains high. The forecast is that freight will remain under pressure until a more stable cargo flow emerges, and any reduction in the ship list could lead to a quick short-term stabilization. Basis for the summary

In the Sea of Azov, freight is supported by a persistent shortage of available ships for the near future, primarily due to prolonged downtime and reduced fleet turnover. The key factor is the long delays on the route and control procedures, which actually cause shipowners to lose time on the voyage and include this in the terms for shippers. Additional pressure is created by the worsening ice conditions, which limits the predictability of the vessel’s arrival and increases the risks for the loading schedule. On the demand side, there is a noticeable increase in activity from shippers in anticipation of the expected regulatory changes in exports, as a result, some of the market is trying to “catch up” with the closure of shipments, which increases competition for the remaining spot tonnage. Even with a moderate overall cargo flow, this set of factors leads to shipowners maintaining a strong position and consistently advocating for tougher terms. However, the economics of the voyage continue to be eroded by the increase in voyage duration due to expectations, leading shipowners to focus on deals with maximum control and minimal risk of additional downtime. The forecast is for an upward trend to continue until delays are reduced and normal ship turnover is restored, at which point the market may transition to a more stable state.