In the Black Sea, the small tonnage market remains under pressure from a weak cargo base, especially for grain and industrial cargoes. Shippers continue to offer a limited number of shipments, which prevents shipowners from achieving a significant increase in rates. Despite the reduction in the number of available mid-range vessels, the excess fleet in the region keeps the market in a state of stagnation. Attempts by shipowners to secure higher levels are not yielding results due to the lack of firm bids. At the same time, interest in fertilizers and metals remains weak, and new deals are being concluded on a point-by-point basis. The current balance of supply and demand is not conducive to significant changes. The forecast for the region remains neutral: a serious recovery can be expected only with an increase in grain exports.
Activity in the Mediterranean is also low, which is due to both the excess fleet and the seasonal decline in business activity. Shippers are limited to individual steel, fertilizers, and building materials transactions, which do not generate full-fledged demand for the fleet. The holiday season further reduces interest in new fixations, and rates are kept at the level of previous weeks. Shipowners are forced to agree to minimum conditions in order to avoid downtime. In some cases, it is possible to secure small bonuses on individual routes, but this is an exception. The lack of stable cargo traffic does not allow us to count on the growth of the market. The forecast indicates the continuation of sluggish dynamics until the end of the season.
In the Sea of Azov, the situation is characterized by a more steady increase in rates due to the revival of the grain segment and constant delays in the Kerch Strait. Reducing the number of available vessels strengthens the position of shipowners who raise their ideas on a daily basis. Shippers are forced to either accept new terms or postpone deliveries, which only increases tensions. At the same time, the demand for coal transportation remains limited, as it is unprofitable for this segment to fix ships at current levels. Individual traders are considering the possibility of direct flights from river ports to the Mediterranean, which in the future may further reduce the available tonnage. The general mood of market participants remains positive, as grain activity supports demand. The forecast assumes that rates will remain high and further pressure on shippers in the coming weeks.