+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, freight rates are currently determined by the fact that the market is slowly waking up after the holidays, and shippers are returning to a regular flow of orders without a sudden surge. The balance of supply and demand for tonnage is relatively even, so rates are more likely to move sideways, and deals are closed on a case-by-case basis with increased selectivity. The main source of volatility is the growing nervousness surrounding the safety of entries and the risks to port infrastructure, which has led some shipowners to avoid certain deliveries and set stricter execution conditions. The situation is further complicated by increased government control over port entries, which leads shippers to check the vessel’s history and documentation in advance to avoid wasting time in the port. As a result, the gap between the expectations of shippers and shipowners widens, and negotiations become more protracted, even when the cargo and vessel are available. Weather-related disruptions and irregular infrastructure operations exacerbate the situation, as any delays immediately impact the vessel’s turnover and increase the shipowners’ demands for risk compensation. The forecast in the base scenario is for continued sideways movement with occasional spikes, and the future trajectory will depend on the stability and manageability of the market.
In the Mediterranean Sea, freight rates are being formed against the backdrop of a steady increase in ship supply, with the list of open positions expanding and the recovery of cargo traffic being noticeably slower. As a result, shippers are gaining a negotiating advantage and are consistently pushing for lower rates and shifting the risks of downtime onto shipowners. Shipowners, in turn, try to maintain the economics of the voyage by setting stricter requirements for cargo readiness, speed of clearance, and predictability of port procedures. With an excess of available tonnage, the spread in transaction levels increases, as some shipowners are willing to make concessions for the sake of loading, while others prefer to wait for higher-quality cargo. This intensifies competition among shipowners and increases the importance of the shipper’s reputation for ensuring smooth logistics without disruptions. While there are no signs of a steady acceleration in cargo flow, the market remains sensitive to any increase in the number of available vessels and reacts quickly by reducing negotiation levels. The forecast is for continued pressure on freight and high variability in terms of transactions until the rate of new cargo starts to catch up with the increase in ship supply.
In the Sea of Azov, the key driver of freight is the shortage of available vessels for short—term dates due to prolonged downtime and congestion along the bottleneck route. Even with a moderate cargo flow, this supports the growth of shipowners’ expectations, as each additional day of waiting significantly reduces turnover and increases the cost of vessel time. The worsening ice conditions add uncertainty to the timing and increase shipowners’ demands for better deal terms, especially when the risk of schedule delays increases. Shippers who are in a rush to complete their shipments before regulatory changes are more likely to accept further increases to ensure that their vessels are delivered on time. At the same time, the gap in expectations within the market remains noticeable: some shippers are trying to maintain the levels, but shipowners are relying on the real shortage of tonnage and the cost of idling. The situation remains highly nervous, as any decrease in capacity immediately exacerbates the shortage of ships and pushes the negotiation levels higher. The forecast is for the freight rates to continue rising until the idling is reduced and the normal turnover of ships is restored.