News of the freight market as of 16.02.2026

In the Black Sea, freight is formed against the backdrop of a gradual improvement in weather conditions, which reduces the risk of forced idles, but does not become a driver of growth in itself. Shippers are showing a moderate revival of interest in shipments, but a significant portion of grain orders remains “soft” and is not fully confirmed, resulting in fewer actual bookings than requests. Shipowners are taking a cautious approach and factoring in the risk of schedule disruptions, but shippers often refuse to accept the increased conditions and prefer to postpone shipments if they do not feel that the voyage is fully manageable. There is a noticeable decrease in the number of available vessels on the market, which means that each confirmed offer is more likely to find a counteroffer, but this does not lead to a sustainable increase in conditions without the influx of solid cargo. In the alternative cargo segment, the regularity of supply is limited, so the market is primarily supported by grain shipments and occasional deliveries of fertilizers. The overall dynamics remain “positional,” with both parties negotiating aggressively, and the availability of cargo and documents at the time of vessel arrival becoming the decisive factor. The forecast is for a continuation of the lateral dynamics, with a potential stabilization as the share of solid orders from shippers increases.

In the Mediterranean Sea, freight rates have been supported in recent days by a moderate increase in cargo traffic, driven by improved weather conditions and market efforts to meet pre-Ramadan demand. Shippers have been actively placing orders for grain, fertilizers, and steel, which has increased the demand density and reduced the risk of long waiting times for shipowners. However, some shipowners have become less willing to consider leaving the region, leading to a decrease in available tonnage and making it more difficult for shippers to find suitable vessels. Against this backdrop, shipowners have increased their requirements for the timing and readiness of loading to minimize the erosion of the voyage’s profitability due to delays. Shippers have continued to negotiate and maintain their conditions, but there have been fewer concessions for urgent and “clean” shipments. The market remains sensitive to the rhythm of demand, and as activity wanes, pressure on conditions will return quickly. However, as long as demand remains strong, shipowners will defend their levels. The forecast suggests a potential pause or slight decrease in activity at the start of Ramadan, followed by a resurgence of demand as new export programs emerge.

In the Sea of Azov, freight is primarily determined by the shortage of available sea-river vessels due to the difficult ice conditions and long-term idling, which significantly reduce the fleet’s turnover. Additionally, delays and inspections during passage through bottlenecks contribute to the risk of time loss, leading shipowners to avoid concessions. As a result, cargo shippers have observed a decrease in cargo traffic due to the implementation of export quotas, leading to cautious demand and a shift towards waiting. At the same time, even a decrease in demand does not cause the market to drop significantly, because there are still few physically available ships, and each loading window becomes competitive. Negotiations become conflictual, as shippers try to negotiate lower terms, while shipowners maintain their levels based on the actual shortage of tonnage and the risk of downtime. The zero duty on key crops reduces regulatory friction, but it does not eliminate the main limitation, which is the availability of ships and the predictability of their passage. The forecast is for a stable market with increased volatility, where downward pressure is only possible if the ice conditions improve significantly and the supply of available vessels increases.