News of the freight market as of 12.01.2026

In the Black Sea, freight is turning towards growth this week, as cargo activity begins to revive and the trading market returns to regular contracting. However, shipowners remain more selective about port calls, as recent incidents in Chernomorsk and Odessa have increased risk perceptions, leading some shipowners to avoid such calls to avoid additional uncertainties in their voyages. In negotiations, this is reflected in increased attention to the quality of planning: shippers who confirm the readiness of their cargo, provide clear loading windows, and maintain proper documentation are more likely to be able to close their vessels quickly. At the same time, the market remains influenced by the previous week’s dynamics, where the actual rates in transactions appeared weaker, and it is important to recognize this as a period-specific factor, even in the face of changing market sentiment. As a result, we are currently witnessing a regime shift: the “yesterday’s correction” is still visible in the confirmation feed, but the “tomorrow’s expectation” is already starting to influence the appetites of shipowners and the speed of decision-making by shippers. With the continued recovery of cargo traffic and the cautious approach of shipowners to risky entries, the baseline forecast is for a gradual reversal towards stronger freight rates in the coming weeks, without sudden spikes but with a steady upward slope.

In the Mediterranean, freight is determined by the return of the fleet to the market after the holidays, and as the list of available vessels grows, competition for limited volumes of fresh cargo increases. Shipper demand is recovering gradually, leading to increased bargaining power and efforts to secure better terms for stowage time and handling rates. Shipowners, on the other hand, are focused on protecting the economics of the voyage by imposing stricter cargo readiness requirements, ensuring transparent port procedures, and reducing the risk of waiting at the dock. The dynamics of rates are noticeably affected by the redistribution of ships between directions within the sea: when shipowners consider certain areas to be less promising, they move less fleet there, and locally this provides short-term support to the freight rate. At the same time, the overall background remains sensitive to any delays in the chain of loading and unloading, because with an excess of free ships, every additional stop quickly becomes an argument for pressure on the rate. Shippers are more likely to win negotiations where they can guarantee a regular supply of cargo and minimal downtime, while shipowners are more likely to win negotiations where they can offer fast delivery and a strong reputation for execution. The forecast for the near future is a moderate recovery in activity, but with continued pressure from the growing fleet supply, the market is likely to remain in the “stable with the risk of a gradual decline” corridor.

In the Sea of Azov, freight is primarily determined by the factor of idling, as the passage of control procedures and the waiting for permits can extend the vessel’s turnaround time and significantly reduce the predictability of the schedule. Weather conditions further exacerbate this volatility, as ships spend longer on approaches and lose their turnaround time when the weather conditions worsen, which automatically increases the sensitivity of rates to any shift in the schedule. Despite the limited cargo flow, shipowners maintain their positions by prioritizing the “time of the vessel” over the volume of cargo. For shippers, this means that the key to winning is not so much in terms of bidding, but rather in being ready to load quickly, close documents in advance, and ensure a smooth flow of cargo. For shipowners, the importance of selecting the right contracts becomes crucial, as they prioritize clear deals with minimal risk of delays and high control over loading. In this context, even if the rates increase, the actual profitability of the voyage may remain under pressure, as long delays can erode margins and increase operating costs. The forecast is that the market will remain unstable and move in spurts until downtime is reduced and normal fleet turnover is restored, after which a more stable betting trajectory is possible.