+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, short-term freight rates are mainly supported by unfavorable weather conditions, which lead to increased delays and more frequent ship departures, resulting in a decrease in fleet turnover. Additionally, the cargo flow remains sluggish, preventing shippers from forming a stable “queue” of requests, and the market operates on a window-to-window basis. Shipowners maintain their levels primarily through a limited list of available vessels, although the supply of certain vessel sizes is beginning to expand locally. Military risks at ports of call further increase nervousness and prevent shippers from actively pushing conditions, because any disruption of the schedule immediately turns into a standstill. Negotiations become more rigid on the terms of cargo readiness and documentary discipline, as it is this that determines whether the flight will be executable without a chain of delays. As a result, the market looks inert: with weak demand, levels do not grow, but weather failures and risks do not allow them to fall noticeably. The forecast is to maintain a sideways dynamics with a risk of a decline in the second half of the month with improved weather and an increase in the number of open positions.
In the Mediterranean Sea, freight is based on regular shipments of several product groups, which ensures steady demand from shippers, even in the face of market caution. The weather factor continues to disrupt the market, with storms and rains causing delays that disrupt schedules and increase the importance of timely vessel availability. As a result, the number of available vessels is more limited, and shipowners are trying to strengthen their positions by taking on the risk of downtime and longer voyages. At the same time, shippers are negotiating hard and trying to maintain their conditions, but they have to take into account that delays quickly eat up the economics of the transaction and increase the shipowners’ requirements for manageability. The quality of planning becomes crucial: confirmed windows, cargo readiness, and the absence of surprises in the port give the shipper an advantage in negotiations. As a result, the market remains relatively stable in terms of sentiment, but it is sensitive to any deterioration in fleet turnover. The forecast is for the current level of activity to remain, but any easing of weather restrictions could increase the supply of ships and put more pressure on the conditions.
In the Sea of Azov, freight is supported by extremely difficult ice conditions and increased inspections, which cause ships to lose their turnover and may remain idle for extended periods. Shippers face a shortage of available sea-river vessels, making it difficult to meet their demand for tonnage even with a weak export flow. Shipowners maintain a strong negotiating position, as ship time becomes a critical resource, and any voyage carries the risk of prolonged delays. At the same time, the approach of export quotas reduces the interest of shippers in contracts for later dates and reduces the overall flow of transactions for the second half of the month. Additionally, the cooling of demand for Russian grain from some buyers puts additional pressure on the market, limiting the volume of new orders and increasing the selectivity of shipments. As a result, a contradictory picture is emerging: the shortage of ships is maintaining the conditions, but the weak cargo flow is limiting the potential for further strengthening. The forecast is for continued high volatility and the risk of reduced conditions as the ice conditions improve and cargo activity decreases after the introduction of quotas.