+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, the low-tonnage fleet market remains subdued amid weak export activity. Shippers are acting cautiously: the grain flow from the ports of Ukraine is slow, which does not allow for stable demand for ships. Shipowners, especially those operating from the Danube ports, are trying to keep rates at an elevated level, citing logistical difficulties, including the ongoing closure of the Bistren estuary. This forces the fleet to use a more expensive route through Sulina, increasing the cost. However, the total number of open vessels remains significant, and activity on other cargoes, including steel and fertilizers, does not provide additional impetus. Local rate increases look situational and are not supported by sustainable growth factors. The forecast for the region remains neutral: the market will continue to fluctuate near current levels until a significant increase in new crop volumes appears.
In the Mediterranean, the situation on the coastal fleet market remains stable, despite a slight increase in activity on the part of shippers. Regular requests for grain shipments from European ports support the general interest, but do not generate sufficient pressure on rates. Fleet availability remains high, and shipowners are forced to compromise during negotiations. The level of competition among open vessels does not allow us to expect an increase in freight, despite attempts by individual players to raise the stakes. Most transactions continue to be concluded at the levels of the previous week, which indicates that there are no major changes. The bulk of the cargo flow is formed from standard directions — grain, fertilizers and scrap metals. In the short term, the market is likely to remain in a sideways corridor with limited potential for rate increases.
In the Sea of Azov, the low-tonnage market showed a surge in freight rates in the middle of the week. The main driver was not so much changes in cargo volumes, but rather increased uncertainty associated with increased inspections and possible delays in the Kerch Strait. These logistical risks have prompted shipowners to reconsider their expectations and strengthen their negotiating positions. At the same time, the overall cargo flow, especially for grain and coal, remains relatively stable, without an obvious increase in volumes. Shippers are in no hurry to accept the new terms and prefer a wait-and-see approach, which may limit the duration of the current rate increase. Nevertheless, the route factor and administrative barriers still have a strong impact on market dynamics. In the coming weeks, the market will remain sensitive to the news background and operational constraints, which may lead to continued rate volatility.