+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, freight is determined by a combination of weak cargo flow and a limited list of available vessels, which makes the market appear “positional” and leads to irregular deal closures. Shippers are cautious and often place partially confirmed orders on the market, making it difficult for shipowners to secure better terms even when there is a shortage of suitable vessels. Weather-related delays at crossings and ports hinder turnover and reduce the number of available positions, emphasizing the importance of precise loading planning and document readiness. The military and political risk increases the selectivity of shipowners in terms of their productions and increases the requirements for the manageability of the voyage, so the gap in expectations between the parties remains noticeable. In such conditions, shippers are trying to push for softer conditions, but if there is a local shortage of ships, they are forced to compromise in order to avoid losing the shipment window. The market continues to depend on the quality of demand: if there are a lot of test orders, the pressure on the conditions remains, but if there are solid orders, the likelihood of rapid stabilization increases. The forecast is for a sideways trend with the risk of short-term dips in weak demand and quick rebounds in a reduced list of available vessels.
In the Mediterranean, freight is more dependent on the limited supply of cargo and the impact of weather on fleet turnover, so the market remains moderately active but sensitive to delays. Storms and squalls disrupt port operations and increase processing times, causing a temporary shortage of suitable vessels even when the list appears sufficient. Shippers try to hold on to the conditions and negotiate hard, but when there is a shortage of ships, they have to pay a premium for reliable delivery and minimize downtime. Shipowners, on the other hand, protect the economics of the voyage by requiring cargo readiness, predictable port operations, and disciplined negotiations to avoid accumulating losses from waiting. Due to the unevenness of cargo flow, deals are often made on a case-by-case basis, and the final level is determined not so much by overall demand as by specific windows and the speed of the ship’s turnover. The situation remains ambiguous: improved weather conditions could quickly expand the list of available vessels and increase pressure on rates, while continued delays keep the market in a state of positional gains. The forecast is for continued moderate activity and sideways movement, with the trajectory of the coming weeks depending on whether weather delays decrease and a more consistent flow of cargo requests emerges.
In the Sea of Azov, freight is supported by a severe shortage of available vessels due to prolonged idling and a decline in fleet turnover. Long waiting times for passage and icebreaking are a key factor, so shipowners are demanding higher compensation for lost time and uncertainty in the schedule. Shippers are competing for combined sea-river vessels and are more likely to accept stricter terms because there are few alternative options on the spot market and the shipping window is easily lost. Another factor is the increased activity in the grain market, where increased demand for exports and limited fleet capacity are causing tension in negotiations and widening the gap between expectations and terms. At the same time, even with a high nominal attractiveness of the voyage, the real profitability of shipowners continues to depend on the length of the waiting period, so they prefer deals with maximum control and minimal risk of additional delays. On the part of shippers, the value of cargo and documents is increasing, as this reduces the time spent in the port and the likelihood of losing the vessel to another cargo. The forecast is that the freight conditions will continue to improve until the downtime is reduced and the normal turnover of the fleet is restored.