+380 67 625 91 65The Black Sea market remains under pressure due to the weak activity of shippers and the growing number of available shipowners. The tonnage supply is increasing in almost all cargo categories, which increases competition between shipowners for a limited number of transactions. At the same time, demand for basic goods remains moderate, and the structure of shipments is changing slightly, which does not create conditions for a market revival. On average, tonnage spends more time waiting for new orders, which further reduces the negotiating positions of shipowners. Despite the steady interest in agricultural cargoes, the pace of their export has not yet compensated for the excess supply of shipowners. Shippers continue to use cautious tactics and form shipments without haste, waiting for more favorable conditions. No significant increase in activity is expected in the near future, but a gradual increase in grain flows at the beginning of winter may create conditions for stabilizing rates.
The Mediterranean Sea remains highly active due to the steady demand for fertilizers and metal cargoes, which forms a solid foundation for the freight market. Shippers are actively forming new shipments, and this reduces the pressure on shipowners, allowing them to keep rates at a comfortable level. The tonnage base in the region looks moderate, and the reduction in the number of open shipowners strengthens their negotiating positions. Shippers are often forced to attract vessels from more remote areas, increasing the ballast leverage and thereby maintaining market dynamics. In some areas, demand for ships is growing faster than supply, which creates local tension points in the market. The overall structure of transportation remains stable, and shipowners confidently expect to maintain a positive background. The forecast for the coming week suggests maintaining the current level of activity with a moderate possibility of further strengthening the market while maintaining the load on the fleet.
The downward trend continues in the Sea of Azov, as shippers form a limited volume of offers for grain and coal. Shipowners are faced with an abundance of available vessels, which puts pressure on rates and prevents the development of an upward trend. Despite the start of the ice campaign, weather conditions have not significantly limited shipping so far, and this does not create additional support for the market. Shippers remain cautious in concluding transactions and focus on destinations with minimal time expenditure. There is high competition among shipowners on key routes, and some deals are being negotiated with a marked reduction in rates. However, the long wait for the passage of the nodal section of the route still plays the role of a factor partially restraining the market from a deeper decline. The situation is likely to remain weak next week, and only a deterioration in navigation conditions may temporarily support freight levels.