+380 67 625 91 65In the Black Sea, the market remains extremely weak, despite the seasonal intensification of discussions on the supply of grain from the new harvest. Shippers continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, limiting the volume of orders, which leaves shipowners with minimal opportunities to raise rates. The decrease in the number of available vessels on certain dates has no noticeable effect on the market — rates are kept at a minimum level. Shippers continue to dictate terms, with most of the transactions taking place under short-term agreements for upcoming flights. Active competition for limited corn and soybean flows also continues, which further hinders the recovery of freight. Even when discussing contracts for July, rates do not rise above spot values, and offers for transportation to Turkey or the Levant are fixed on the verge of operational loss for shipowners. The outlook for the region remains moderately negative — while maintaining a low density of applications, the market will remain under pressure at least until the second half of July.
The Mediterranean Sea continues to show sustained weakness amid a clear oversupply of low-tonnage vessels. Shippers in almost all segments maintain control over rates, preventing even short-term growth. The supply of export cargoes remains insufficient to cover the available tonnage supply, which creates a pattern of persistent imbalance. Shipowners are forced to fix voyages on a minimum rent basis, in order not to be idle. A slight increase in the cost of fuel was the only factor that made it possible to contain a further drop in freight, but this effect was short-term. The current behavior of the players does not give reason to expect significant changes in the near future. Most likely, the market will remain at its current level until the end of June, with a possible short-term recovery only with a sudden increase in export shipments from large agro-industrial holdings.
The Sea of Azov demonstrates the most difficult situation among the regions under consideration. The market remains deeply stagnant, with minimal activity from shippers and extremely low prospects for rate increases. Even new grain offers with shipments in the first half of July are discussed within spot levels, often without urgency premiums. Shipowners have practically no pressure tools, as the supply of vessels remains high, and demand is concentrated on minimal shipments. Shippers strive to fix rates with a minimum daily return for the fleet, especially on routes towards Turkey. Even for long-term investments, such as Egypt or the Levant, the rates remain extremely low, making it impossible to compensate for the costs. The forecast for the Azov region remains negative: without a drastic increase in export volumes, the market will not exit the stagnation phase.